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There is a saying that goes “when the tide rolls back, you can see who is swimming naked”. When the market is strong, it covers a lot of weaknesses. With interest rates moving up, inflation on the rise, and the economy heading towards a possible recession, we’ll find out soon how solid the foundation of the real estate market has been, and more importantly, which companies and agents have built a strong, recession-proof business. Change always brings opportunity for the smart and opportunistic among us, and in my opinion, the following business types are positioned best for success in the coming years.
The Niche Superstars
The companies that are known as the best at something, will win big in the coming years. When there is less business to go around, the customer becomes more powerful, and people want to work with the best. If you are known as the best luxury agent or the best buyer’s agent, you’re going to have more business than you can handle in the coming years because customers will seek you out.
Diversified Business Models
Offices with multiple channels of business will do well in slower, more competitive markets. I tell my broker/owner friends that they should add relocation services and property management to their businesses as soon as possible. When the last recession hit, companies that had a track record of working with corporate clients were well-positioned for the REO onslaught that hit the market. While other brokers were closing down, they were expanding their operations and making more money than ever. Brokers who have escrow, title, and/or mortgage services are also better positioned to navigate through more treacherous waters. Geographic diversity also helps. Companies that are tied to only one local economy are more vulnerable than companies that are in multiple markets and can deploy more capital to offices where the market is stronger.
Capital and The Barbell Effect
Companies that managed their money well, and who have solid capital reserves will be able to withstand shifts in the market. The barbell effect also suggests that very small companies with low overhead will be nimble enough to survive a slower market, and very large companies with strong balance sheets will also do well, but everyone else in between will have a tough time. Intelligently-led companies in the middle will need to sprint to one side of the barbell or the other. In other words, get small and lean as quickly as possible or get big fast, if not organically, then by acquisitions.
The fundamentals of real estate are too strong for a crash like we saw in 2007. Homeowners have more equity than ever, and the mortgage market is much more disciplined than it was back then. However, affordability is at an all-time low and the market is due for a correction. The real estate market will undoubtedly be tougher, especially for the mortgage industry, but a surge of innovation is also around the corner. The companies that best understand digitization and the changes in our demographics will be the winners. I believe that the next Zillow, Rocket Mortgage, and eXp are in their early stages right now, which means some of the biggest fortunes ever made in our industry are not behind us, but rather are just around the corner.
There are qualities in our community that no data point can fully capture, but this episode is about one of the biggest: grit. I talk about why perseverance, resilience, family, and purpose have always been among the greatest strengths of Hispanics and Latinos, and why those strengths can be a powerful advantage in a world being reshaped by technology, wealth, and access. But grit alone is not enough. If we want to translate all of that talent and determination into lasting economic and political power, we also need stronger networks, better platforms, and more intentional leadership. The opportunity is real. The question is whether we are ready to organize around it.
For years, we’ve been told that mass deportations would mean more jobs and higher wages for U.S.-born workers. But this episode looks at why the opposite may actually be happening. I break down new research showing how immigrant and U.S.-born workers often play complementary roles in the labor market, why removing one group can hurt the other, and how these policies may be making labor shortages, housing challenges, and economic instability even worse. This is a conversation about jobs, economics, and the unintended consequences too many people still refuse to confront.
Something important is shifting, and this episode is about why it matters. For a young and fast-growing community like ours, the rise of AI may be opening doors that were previously harder to reach — not by eliminating every barrier, but by expanding access to knowledge, tools, and opportunity at a scale we’ve never seen before. But access alone won’t determine who wins. This moment calls for strategy, community, and a serious commitment to turning potential into power. The opening is real. What happens next depends on what we do with it.