The stock market is near an all-time high, while unemployment is up and wages are flat. It begs the question: is the stock market overvalued? I’m not a stock market expert, I don’t follow the market like some people, but I do know a few things. A share of stock is a piece of a company. In that regard, it is not that different than owning real estate. When you buy an investment property, you don’t look at the value of that property every day, you are more interested in the rent it earns and the costs associated with maintaining the property. The same should be the case with stocks. You shouldn’t look at the price fluctuations of the stock for a company, rather you should look at the earnings and earning potential of the company itself. If you are a day trader who is looking for short-term opportunities, we may be looking at a correction pretty soon. Economic growth has been anemic, even prior to the pandemic, and without major changes to our immigration policies or major breakthroughs in productivity it will be hard to see how valuations will get better in the short run. If you’re a long-term player a good index fund or the right financial advisor, you can still find you some great opportunities. BTW – the winner of the election won’t matter all that much. In his first 43 months in office, the S&P 500 index under Donald Trump increased 49%. That’s a pretty good gain; however, under Obama, the S&P increased by 70% in his first 43 months. Fiscal policy matters for a lot of things, but stock prices don’t seem to have as much of a correlation to politics as most people think.
Over the last few weeks, I have had the opportunity to speak at the T3 Conference in Florida…I surprised the audience when I explained how the issue of diversity has been framed incorrectly, and has for the most part alienated the business community.
Elon Musk dropped by the Real Time with Bill Maher show recently for an interview with the host. Maher, who considers himself a liberal is an obvious fan of the CEO of Tesla and Space X. The centerpiece of their conversation was their discussion regarding what Musk called the “woke mind virus” or what I prefer to call “cancel culture”.
People sometimes get me wrong. They think that because I talk a lot about giving back and living modestly, I must not care about money. On the contrary, I care a lot about money because I understand how our system works.